Friday, September 08, 2006

Risk Averse

Last night at my Boss's Boss's going away party, I was talking to a co-worker about fantasy football and lamenting my inability to master the art of manipulating the pre-draft rankings in an autopick draft. Every year I try a different tact, and every year I seem to end up with an unexpected problem.

This year, I managed to avoid many outright ridiculous picks, but instead a number of seemingly sensible picks ended up adding up to a very questionable roster.

In particular, my running game consists completely of what I would term 'risky' picks.

Clinton Portis

Suffered a separated shoulder during the preseason, and while it seems to be healing, for at least the initial part of the year I'll be wondering Will He Play or Won't He Play. And there is always the chance that if he does play he won't be at full speed.

Mike Bell

Probably the best option in the Denver backfield, at least judging by the preseason. But on the other hand, he's in a three-headed backfield and who knows who will end up coming out on top of that situation or who will get most of the carries in any given week.

Joseph Addai

Widely expected to be the better back in Indianapolis by the end of the year, but who knows if that will actually happen and when the cross-over point will be.

Each of those picks individually is probably fine. But when they are all added up on a single team, my running game seems a bit suspect. Sure, it is possible that I could have the wonderful problem of not knowing which superstar to play on a given week. But it is equally likely that I'll have three guys, only one of which has a good week each week and I have to continually struggle to try and guess who that might be.

In a human draft there is no way I would have chosen quite that much risk in my running game. I would gladly have traded one or more of my (possibly) stellar receiving corps for at least one more pedestrian but possibly more reliable running back.

On the other hand, it probably doesn't matter because I rarely finish the season with even half the roster I started the season with. We'll see as the season progresses, I guess.

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