Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Tale of Two Quarterbacks

This week my fantasy football team, The Arena Football All-Stars, will be battling it out with Brenden's team in the championship for our league. It's been a long, not so impressive road for the AFAS, as they've been ravaged by injuries and mis-management.

The injuries took their toll over the course of the season, as I was forced to drop injured-but-good-players in order to be able to field a full squad each week. Usually someone would then pounce and pick up the better-but-temporarily dropped player and stash them on their roster.

That is pretty much expected, but the worse hit was the complete lack on my part of being able to determine who to play on a given week. Particularly at quarterback:

WeekBulgerBackupPlayedDecision
14.192.71BulgerRight
27.6510.61BulgerWrong
312.139.81SmithWrong
430.51-3.61SmithWrong
516.919.8BulgerWrong
627.212.28BulgerRight
7 20.66Roethlisberger-
822.541.85BulgerRight
915.630.3BulgerRight
100.71.47BulgerWrong
110.8415.31BulgerWrong
127.724.96BulgerRight
1316.283.42BulgerRight
1427.126.22SmithWrong
150.7422.89BulgerWrong


The first week my backup was Aaron Brooks, who I dropped like a bad habit in favor of Alex Smith after the first week. In week 7, both Bulger and Smith were on a bye, so I filled in with a same-week-pickup Roethlisberger for a game.

As you can see, both Bulger and Smith were inconsistent to the extreme, and I was even worse at judging which of the two would have the hot hand in a given week. Only 6 out of 15 times (40%) was I able to pick the right quarterback to start, or 47% if you give me credit for Roethlisberger.

Those are hideous percentages. There were a number of games that I lost, which I would have won if I had only been able to prognosticate better. I nearly would have lost to Bill last week in the playoff semi-finals, except that Indy stomped all over Cincinnati in the Monday Night game.

The moral of the story is, of course, don't believe me if I claim to have any secret knowledge of how a football player is going to do in a given week. I'm probably just guessing, and I'll likely be wrong.

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